The Indian Sugar Mills’ Association (ISMA) has released its second advance estimates for the 2023-24 marketing year, projecting a 10% decrease in India’s sugar production (gross) without ethanol diversion. The industry body anticipates the total sugar production to be approximately 330.5 lakh tonnes, compared to 366.2 lakh tonnes in the previous year. The estimates suggest reduced output in Maharashtra and Karnataka, with Maharashtra’s production expected to fall to 99.9 lakh tonnes from 118.5 lakh tonnes and Karnataka’s to 49.7 lakh tonnes from 65.8 lakh tonnes.
While Uttar Pradesh’s gross output is projected to marginally increase to 119.9 lakh tonnes from 118.9 lakh tonnes, ISMA highlights that the government has permitted sugar diversion of only 17 lakh tonnes for ethanol production via sugarcane juice/B-heavy molasses in 2023-24. This limitation could result in net sugar production of around 313.5 lakh tonnes, marking a 4.5% decline from the previous year’s 328.2 lakh tonnes with ethanol diversion.
Considering factors such as an opening stock of about 56 lakh tonnes on October 1, 2023, domestic consumption of 285 lakh tonnes, and the estimated net production, ISMA predicts comfortable closing stocks of around 84.5 lakh tonnes as of September 30, 2024. The association suggests that the government might allow approximately 18 lakh tonnes of additional sugar diversion for ethanol production in the current Ethanol Supply Year, ensuring sufficient closing stocks to meet demand into the next season.
